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Table 4 The optimal hierarchic models for EQ4-4.9 with exogenous variables {EQ’s} or {EQ’s, SA’s}

From: Statistical detection of the influence of solar activities to weak earthquakes

Model

Parameter(s)

Variables

Time lags

R 2

BIC

  

EQ4-4.9

1-5 7 8 11 12 14

  
 

μ t of PO (μ t )

EQ3-3.9

1 6 10 12

  

1-1

 

EQ5-5.9

1-5 9-12 14

0.5649

23015.3

 

μ t is regressed by EQ’s

EQ6-6.9

3 4-8 11 13

  
  

EQ7-7.9

1-3 5 6 11 13 14

  
  

EQ8-9.9

3 4-8 11 13

  
  

B

3 7 9 11 12

  
  

T

2 3 5 7 8 10

  
 

μ t of PO (μ t )

D

2 4 10

  

1-2

 

V

3 4 5 10 11

  
 

μ t is regressed by EQ’s

P

1 2 4 10 11

0.5955

22625.4

 

of Model 1-1 and

Ey

1 3 5 6 8 14

  
 

SA’s additionally

SSN

1 7

  
  

DST

5 7 8 10 11

  
  

PCI

3 4 9 11 14

  
  

EQ4-4.9

1-4 7 13 14

  
 

μ t of NB (μ t ,σ)

EQ3-3.9

1 8

  

2-1

 

EQ5-5.9

1 2 4 5 7 14

0.5508

18830.0

 

μ t is regressed by EQ’s

EQ6-6.9

3 8

  
  

EQ7-7.9

1

  
  

EQ8-9.9

1

  
  

B

   
  

T

10

  
 

μ t of NB (μ t ,σ)

D

   

2-2

 

V

5

  
 

μ t is regressed by EQ’s

P

 

0.5576

18800.0

 

of Model 2-1 and

Ey

   
 

SA’s additionally

SSN

7

  
  

DST

   
  

PCI

   
  

EQ4-4.9

3 5 13

  
 

σ t of NB (μ t ,σ t )

EQ3-3.9

   

3-1

 

EQ5-5.9

7

0.5195

18601.2

 

σ t is regressed by

EQ6-6.9

1

  
 

EQ’s where μ t was

EQ7-7.9

   
 

estimated by Model 2-1

EQ8-9.9

   
  

B

   
 

σ t of NB (μ t ,σ t )

T

   
  

D

1 12

  

3-2

σ t is regressed by EQ’s

V

   
 

of Model 3-1 and

P

 

0.5016

18577.0

 

SA’s additionally

Ey

   
 

where μ t was estimated

SSN

   
 

by Model 2-2

DST

   
  

PCI

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