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Table 4 The optimal hierarchic models for EQ4-4.9 with exogenous variables {EQ’s} or {EQ’s, SA’s}

From: Statistical detection of the influence of solar activities to weak earthquakes

Model Parameter(s) Variables Time lags R 2 BIC
   EQ4-4.9 1-5 7 8 11 12 14   
  μ t of PO (μ t ) EQ3-3.9 1 6 10 12   
1-1   EQ5-5.9 1-5 9-12 14 0.5649 23015.3
  μ t is regressed by EQ’s EQ6-6.9 3 4-8 11 13   
   EQ7-7.9 1-3 5 6 11 13 14   
   EQ8-9.9 3 4-8 11 13   
   B 3 7 9 11 12   
   T 2 3 5 7 8 10   
  μ t of PO (μ t ) D 2 4 10   
1-2   V 3 4 5 10 11   
  μ t is regressed by EQ’s P 1 2 4 10 11 0.5955 22625.4
  of Model 1-1 and Ey 1 3 5 6 8 14   
  SA’s additionally SSN 1 7   
   DST 5 7 8 10 11   
   PCI 3 4 9 11 14   
   EQ4-4.9 1-4 7 13 14   
  μ t of NB (μ t ,σ) EQ3-3.9 1 8   
2-1   EQ5-5.9 1 2 4 5 7 14 0.5508 18830.0
  μ t is regressed by EQ’s EQ6-6.9 3 8   
   EQ7-7.9 1   
   EQ8-9.9 1   
   B    
   T 10   
  μ t of NB (μ t ,σ) D    
2-2   V 5   
  μ t is regressed by EQ’s P   0.5576 18800.0
  of Model 2-1 and Ey    
  SA’s additionally SSN 7   
   DST    
   PCI    
   EQ4-4.9 3 5 13   
  σ t of NB (μ t ,σ t ) EQ3-3.9    
3-1   EQ5-5.9 7 0.5195 18601.2
  σ t is regressed by EQ6-6.9 1   
  EQ’s where μ t was EQ7-7.9    
  estimated by Model 2-1 EQ8-9.9    
   B    
  σ t of NB (μ t ,σ t ) T    
   D 1 12   
3-2 σ t is regressed by EQ’s V    
  of Model 3-1 and P   0.5016 18577.0
  SA’s additionally Ey    
  where μ t was estimated SSN    
  by Model 2-2 DST    
   PCI